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Democrats brace for recall try Cain says that where logic or loyalty won't work, hardball politics might. "What they can do is shut down the donors," he said. "Party leaders can say, 'No money to (another candidate), or you can kiss off your legislation.' " "Keeping Democrats off the ballot allows all Democrats to focus on defeating the recall," said Tim Hodson, executive director of the Center for California Studies at California State University, Sacramento. " 'Just vote no' is a strong message," agreed Shaun Bowler, a political science professor at the University of California, Riverside, and co-author of the book "Demanding Choices: Opinion Voting and Direct Democracy." "The fundamental question voters will have to face is, 'Will a Republican do any different?' And the answer has to be, 'Not much,' " Bowler said. "Any candidate has to face the budget deficit. It's not like the numbers are going to change." Another factor beyond whether the backers will gather enough signatures is when they will do so. If they don't get it done in about a month, they might find their recall on the same ballot as a hotly contested Democratic presidential primary in March. But if they can get it done soon, they might be able to call a special election this year. "The gamble is that Democrats won't turn out in a special election to back Gray Davis. They don't much like him, anyway," Bowler said. "But in a primary, when you're out voting for a whole bunch of other Democrats, you might as well tick the box to keep Gray Davis." "For now," Mulholland said, steering clear of theoretical musings, "there is no recall." * To reach Capitol Bureau Chief Will Shuck, phone (916) 441-4078 or e-mail sacto@recordnet.com Previous California recall attempts California adopted the recall process in 1911. The first attempt to use it occurred in 1913. Since then, there have been 117 recall attempts at the state level. Only seven made it to the ballot, and only four succeeded. Those ousted were: * Sen. Marshall Black, Progressive, in 1913. * Sen. Edwin E. Grant, Democrat, in 1914. * Assemblyman Paul Horcher, Republican, in 1994. * Assemblywoman Doris Allen, Republican, in 1995. Popular targets: * Assembly members: 38 attempts, three elections, two successful recalls. * Governors: 31 attempts, some with only a few dozen signatures; no elections. * Supreme Court justices: 26 attempts, no elections. * State senators: 16 attempts, four elections, two successful recalls. Less-popular targets: * general: two. * Board of Equalization members: two. * Entire Supreme Court: one. * Lieutenant governor: one. Some of the governors who were subjects of efforts: * Culbert Olson (1939-1943): five tries in one term. * Edmund G. "Pat" Brown Sr. (1959-1967): two tries in two terms. * Ronald Reagan (1967-1975): three tries in two terms. * Jerry Brown (1975-1983): five tries in two terms. * George Deukmejian (1983-1991): eight tries in two terms. * Pete Wilson (1991-1999): four tries in two terms. Recall efforts at the local level have been more prolific and more likely to succeed. Since 1997, there have been 110 attempts at the city, county or school district level, 81 of which passed. Nearly half (54) were school district officials.
Sources: Secretary of state's office, California State University's California Election Data Archive Project
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